Market Commentary of The Forex Market, October 2018

This Forex Market Commentary covers various topics and understanding of foreign currency market activity and engaging information for an astute trader and investor, of international markets by demonstrating how interconnected the economies of nations have become.

October 26, 2018: The currency forex market has seen Greenbacks bid just about everywhere. Even the more traditional safe-haven Japanese Yen wasn't to be this week, as the currency is flat for the year to date. The Japanese Yen has shed over 7% given that its March of this year highs. Observing the worldwide slowdown, the effect has been noticed not only on producer economic climates but also in emerging markets (EM's). 

Yesterday's sessions the key event has been the European Central Bank's announcement at lunch break pursued by the Q and A session. After the anticipated unchanged across the board, it has been left up to currencies to respond and Super Mario Draghi’s news headlines. All of these led to much more US Dollar overall performance in both spot prices and forwards. 

By the later part of the American market, trading British Pound was flirting with a 1.27 handle, a drop of negative 0.55% and also the Euro Dollar had gone down minus 0.4% trading predominantly between 1.14 and 1.13 handle. Watching the unchanged news announcement did almost nothing, however the remark that interest rates would most likely continue to be with small adjustment right up until summer of 2019.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Loonie is rallying for the Fourth straight trading session following Wednesday’s Bank of Canada as an expected interest rate hike that was included with a hawkish bent of their outlook.

October 25, 2018: With the stock market downfall, the US Dollar seemed to have performed very well and shoved both Euro Dollar and British Pound back to June 2017 low levels. The Yen definitely seems to be losing its safe-haven bid, which may possibly give a bit of support for the Nikkei Index, it's probably hardly surprising since the capital moves towards the Greenback. 

October 20, 2018: The China market led bounce in stocks, which faded at the end of trading session, and also the  Dollar’s cool off had been the two main drivers in Foreign exchange markets on Friday. 

The Euro Dollar recoverable move above the Mean Support 1.1477  level led to higher closure right after attaining as low as 1.1433 during the early trading session, even though the Dollar Index (DXY) also didn't rise above its latest swing high, therefore the world reserve currency could very well carry on and consolidate before re-testing the month of August lows.

The rebound in the Euro Dollar seemed to be assisted by the speculation relating to a potential new budget offer from Italy, and also as Moody’s downgraded Italy following the American markets being closed, we'll most likely see more choppy, hard-to-trade action in Forex market, primarily due to the big moves in US Treasury yields lately.

October 12, 2018: The Euro Dollar finished higher on Thursday session as it consolidates much of the declines off Sept high. The higher range close establishes the stage for transforming from bearish to neutral signaling that sideways to mildly higher prices are likely to occur in near term.

First Mean Resistance has developed at 1.1606; the second Key Resistance 1.1797 is near September's high 1.1815. First Mean Support is at 1.1477, while the second 'VERY MAJOR' Key Support is 1.1344 with Year Low and significant Currency Dip destination.

The British Pound finished higher on Thursday trading session. The higher range closure sets the price action for a steady to higher for Friday's session and beyond. Trade Selector Signal entries are neutral to bullish signaling that stable bullish prices are bound to climb higher in near-term. 

If the currency pair extends this week's rally, Currency Rally 1.3350 is the next upside target, since Mean Resistance 1.3285 has become weak and variable due to the number of retests done since July 6.  

However, in the event currency unable to close above Mean Resistance 1.3285 for the next couple trading of sessions that would renew the declining sentiment to Mean Support 1.3093, and 1.2941, respectively and set the Stage 2 & 3, while Key Support 1.2699 awaits to revisited at some point in the interim.

The Swiss Franc finished a bit higher on Thursday's session. The upper-range close establishes the price action for a steady to higher for Friday's trading session.

Mildly bullish momentum signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible interim. If the currency pair extends the ascend by closing above Mean Resistance 0.9927, this would confirm that a short-term bullishness has been positioned.

The next upside target is Mean Resistance 0.9968, and revisit the Key Resistance 1.0048 along with completed Currency Rally 1.0055. On the downside, the first support is Mean Support at 0.9840 (Stage 2), second Mean Support is crossing at 0.9724, while Key Support is looming at 0.9586.

The Japanese Yen closed up small on Thursday session. The mid-range close establishes the stage(s) for a steady to higher/lower trading session on Friday and beyond. 

A steady to lower momentum and meeting Mean Support 111.87 criteria are signaling that higher prices are a possible interim to Mean Resistance 113.24 (Stage 3). If the Yen currency pair extends the ascend by closing above Mean Resistance 113.24, this would confirm that a short-term bullishness has been positioned.

The next upside target is Key Resistance 114.53 and revisits the completed inner Currency Rally 114.57, and overdue outer Currency Rally 114.94. On the downside, the first support is Mean Support at 111.07 (Stage 4), second significant Key Support is awaiting at 110.03.

The Canadian Dollar closed lower yesterday (Oct 11) session. The mid-range close establishes the stage(s) for a steady to higher/lower trading session on Friday and interim. 

Current steady to lower momentum and failure to close above vital Mean Resistance 1.3068 will be signaling lower prices in interim and drop to Mean Support 1.2951 (Stage 2). If the currency pair extends the descend by closing below Mean Support 1.2951, this would confirm that a mid to long-term bearishness.

On the contrary, closure above Mean Resistance 1.3068 will advance the price action (Stage 3) to Mean Resistance 1.3185 and 1.3268 respectively, while Key Resistance 1.3139 as well as completed Currency Rally outcome needs to be retested.

The Aussie Dollar closed sharply higher on Oct 11 trading session. The low-range higher close establishes the stage for a steady to higher interim momentum. 

Current steady to lower sentiment and failure to close below vital Key Support 0.7056 is a signal advocating mildly higher prices in the interim. Mean Resistance 0.7223 will probable target (Stage 2), while Key Resistance 0.7292 is open for business. 

Drop to Key Support 0.7056 (Stage 3) will send the currency pair lower causing the descend to fulfill the law of probabilities of Currency Dip 0.6998.

The Kiwi Dollar closed sharply higher on Thursday's session (Oct 11). The low-range higher close establishes the stage for a light-robustly move to the upside. 

Current steady to lower sentiment and failure to close below vital Key Support 0.6413 is a signal advocating mildly higher prices in the interim. Mean Resistance 0.6593 will be a probable target (Stage 2), while Key Resistance 0.6684 is an open target for the bulls. 

Drop to Key Support 0.6413 (Stage 3) will send the currency pair lower causing the descend to fulfill the law of probabilities of Currency Dip 0.3119.

October 11, 2018: Bitcoin nosedived on Oct 11, smashing below the Key Support at $6134. Even though we might have anticipated a touchdown of the critical Inner Coin Dip at $5620, the bulls are currently attempting a pullback.

The bulls will need to scale a Mean Resistance $6750 before the uptrend change will be validated. A break and closure below of the $6134 mark will undoubtedly bring about a couple of majors, price levels: Aug Low $5900, Yearly Low $5777 which will result in a sharp fall. Now, chart prices reveal that the bears have an upper hand.

October 10, 2018: The Euro Dollar is still weak even following the creation of miner Mean Support 1.1477 as we proceed to Key Support 1.1344, Yearly Low and eventually to Currency Dip 1.1208.

October 9, 2018: US equity markets appear to be giving answers to the capital stream flowing int US, therefore well worth keeping a very close eye over the Euro Dollar over the next week or so as we proceed to Key Support 1.1344, Yearly Low and eventually to Currency Dip 1.1208.

October 3, 2018: The Euro Dollar/US Dollar pair was trading just across the 1.15 handle following testing the Mean Support 1.1541 in early trading session on Tuesday, as we predicted. The currency pair continues to be under pressure from the time the Federal Reserve rate-day a week ago and an obvious crack below the 1.15 Mean Support would undoubtedly warn of a test out of the Yearly Low 1.1297.

Which in turn can lead to an additional selloff in EM's (emerging markets), as the continuing Dollar-funding turmoil might further worsen? On a marginally positive note, the broader DXY index was trading at its best level ever since early Sept, while the Euro Dollar struck a 6-week low yesterday in the initial trading session.

October 1, 2018: The British Pound is seen flirting with the Mean Support of $1.3030 following tipping the Key Resistance $1.3285 on 20th of September. A convincing break below the current Mean Support will be leading to a subsequent weakness towards lower Mean Support $1.2921.

Any breaking down journey will certainly support the negative implication and outlook of the currency pair and quicken the risk of the slide even further towards Mean Support $1.2853, and as well as major Key Support $1.2699 established with the completion of the outer Currency Dip 1.2658 on 15th of August.  

On the flip side, the current Mean Support may now seem to act as an immediate launch platform to Mean Resistance $1.3180, above in which the GBP/USD pair will most likely strive towards reclaiming the 1.33 handle before eventually completing very fragile open for business Currency Rally 1.3350.

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